Steel prices are rising again. A temporary increase or a new price level?

Steel prices are rising again. A temporary increase or a new price level?

What this means for construction companies in the second half of 2026

Commentary by: Adam Iwanowski, Procurement Department, EcoTech

Steel prices on global markets are rising again, and with them the costs of many infrastructure, industrial, and construction projects. For companies planning purchases of steel pipes, this means they need to closely monitor changes both in raw material markets and in the regulatory environment.

In the commentary below, Adam Iwanowski from EcoTech’s Procurement Department analyzes the key factors currently affecting steel prices. He explains the signals coming from commodity markets, how new European Union regulations may influence import costs, and what consequences these changes may have for steel pipe prices in the second half of 2026.

Three indicators pointing in the same direction

On a daily basis, I analyze commodity quotations and observe how steel prices are changing on global markets. Individual price fluctuations can be misleading, which is why it is worth focusing above all on the broader trend.

If we analyze three key steel contracts and their average prices in the first half of 2026, we can see increases across all major market segments:

Scrap, which is the most liquid contract on the market and often sets the direction for other steel products, became more expensive amid rising trading volumes. After a dynamic increase in spring, prices stabilized, but at a level clearly higher than at the beginning of the year.

I pay particular attention to HRC, or hot-rolled coil, which is the basic raw material used in the production of welded pipes. Its current price on the U.S. market is around USD 1,075/t, representing a 17.7% year-on-year increase and the highest level since January 2024.

In practice, this means that pipe manufacturers are facing rising material costs, which over time are reflected in the prices of finished products.

What is the market saying about the coming months?

From a purchasing planning perspective, what matters is not only where prices are today, but also what the market expects.

Currently, all three analyzed contracts are in so-called contango, a situation in which futures prices are higher than current prices. This means that market participants are not expecting prices to fall in the coming months, but rather to continue increasing moderately.

For example, the price of Turkish scrap, currently around USD 405/t, may, according to futures quotations, rise to USD 424–430/t in the fourth quarter of 2026.

This is not a single forecast or the opinion of one analyst. It is a picture of market expectations reflected in futures contract prices.

An important factor affecting the European market: CBAM and new safeguard measures

In addition to raw material prices themselves, regulatory changes in the European Union are currently particularly important.

1. CBAM has been in force since 1 January 2026. This mechanism adds the cost of CO₂ emissions to imported steel. In practice, this means an additional cost of approximately EUR 35–150/t for steel from outside the EU, depending on the country of origin and the emissions intensity of production.
2. New safeguard measures are intended to replace the current measures expiring on 30 June 2026. The proposal assumes a reduction of duty-free import quotas by around 50%, an increase in the out-of-quota tariff rate from 25% to 50%, and an obligation to document the place where the steel was melted and poured.

Together, this means reduced competitiveness of cheaper imports from outside the EU and a stronger position for European producers. Industry forecasts indicate a possible increase in steel prices in Europe and the United Kingdom of around GBP 80/t in the short term, and even GBP 200/t or more after the new measures are fully implemented.

What does this mean for pipe prices?

The price of a pipe can be simplified into the following model:

Pipe price = HRC price + processing margin + energy and labor + regulatory costs, in the case of imports from outside the EU.

For welded pipes produced in Europe, HRC accounts for around 60% of the product cost. If the HRC price increases by EUR 200/t, the raw material cost alone will raise the pipe price by approximately EUR 120/t.

In addition, producers operating with limited import competition may increase processing margins by a further EUR 30–50/t.

As a result, a realistic scenario for the second half of 2026 assumes an increase in welded pipe prices of around EUR 150–200/t, provided the proposed safeguard measures are implemented in their current form.

In the case of seamless pipes, OCTG, and specialist products, the share of raw material in the final price is lower, but the nominal impact of price increases may be just as significant due to the higher value of these products.

What does this mean for investors and contractors?

From my perspective, there are three key conclusions.

1. Prices currently available on the market may not be representative of deliveries carried out in the second half of the year. Planning investment budgets based on current price levels may lead to an underestimation of costs.
2. Both market data and planned regulations point in the same direction — an increase in the cost of steel and steel products.
3. It is worth considering securing volumes earlier or concluding framework agreements for planned projects before the new regulations are fully implemented and reflected in producers’ price lists.

As a person responsible for procurement, I observe these changes already at the raw material market stage, often before they translate into the prices of finished products. This is why I believe they should be taken into account early enough when planning investments and procurement budgets.

Summary

In my opinion, the current price trend has solid foundations both in market data and in the regulatory changes taking place in Europe. Everything indicates that we are not dealing merely with a short-term price rebound, but with the formation of a new price level on the steel market.

A strategy based on waiting for significant price decreases in the second half of 2026 contradicts the signals coming from the futures market and the direction of regulatory changes.

The most useful indicator for ongoing monitoring of the situation remains Scrap CFR Turkey, which usually reacts to market changes the fastest and often sets the direction for other segments of the steel market.

Adam Iwanowski
Procurement Department, EcoTech

Analysis based on monthly London Metal Exchange ferrous reports from February–April 2026, the Annual Ferrous Review of 6 May 2026, and reference data from May 2026. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendation or commercial advice.